3.5 Decision Making: Options, Consequences, Values and Risks

The rational decision model (the five steps — a structured answer):1. Define the problem and objective (what exactly must be decided, by when, by whom?);2. Generate options (never accept the presented binary — settle or litigate is usually a false dilemma; there is arbitrate, mediate, renegotiate, restructure, wait, or escalate partially);3. Map consequences of each option — for each stakeholder, immediate and downstream (the consequence tree; think two moves ahead, as in negotiation — Unit 4.2);4. Weigh values — not only outcomes but principles (professional ethics, client autonomy, long- term reputation, justice): a profitable option may be unethical; a legal option may be ruinous to relationships. Value conflicts (efficiency vs fairness; candour vs privilege) are resolved by ranking, not by pretending them away;5. Assess risks — probability × magnitude of each downside; the decision under uncertainty (expected-value reasoning; and its behavioural corrections — people overweigh small risks and recent events).Then decide, act, and review — decision-making is a loop; the post-mortem (what did we assume wrongly?) is how judgment improves.The behavioural warnings (one line each):anchoring (first number drags the negotiation), confirmation bias (we prosecute the first suspect), sunk-cost error (throwing good money after lost cases), groupthink (chambers' harmony defeating doubt — the dissenter's institutional value).The lawyer's daily applications: settlement calculus (expected award × probability − costs and delay — with…