The classic model: populations move through stages as death and birth rates fall. | Stage | Death rate | Birth rate | Result | Example pattern | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 High stationary | High | High | Flat, small | Pre-modern | | 2 Early expanding | Falling | High | Population explosion | Industrializing | | 3 Late expanding | Low | Falling | Growth slowing | Nepal broadly here | | 4 Low stationary | Low | Low | Flat, ageing | Developed | | 5 Declining | Low | Lower | Shrinking | Some developed states |
Nepal's position: the demographic transition's third stage, with fertility having fallen toward replacement level per the recent census rounds — the dividend window: a large working-age share, if employment and services keep pace (the dividend is a loan against jobs, not a gift).